Strong Evidence in the JFK Assassination
13 February 2000
One of the cornerstones in a rigorous approach to critical thinking in the
JFK assassination is to limit our evidence to that which is "strong,"
i.e., backed up by something physical (that is available for public study) and
by an opinion of at least one expert. Any evidence that does not satisfy these
two criteria is considered "weak," or unreliable. The physical part of
strong evidence can be an object, a photograph, a recording, etc.; the expert
interpretation can be a book, an article, a lecture at a conference, or any
other form of interpretation of the evidence. The physical evidence plus the
interpretation amounts to testing and validating the evidence.
In finding the preferred explanation for the JFK assassination, we list all
the strong evidence, along with all hypotheses, and choose the simplest
hypothesis consistent with the strong evidence. For one reason or another, we have never made a formal list of the strong evidence. Here is a
provisional list, begun on 13 February 2000. It is admittedly incomplete, and
will be supplemented and modified in the coming days and weeks. In the ideal
world, the JFK community could agree on a basic list that satisfies the above
definition.
The careful reader will note that long as this list may seem, it represents
only a tiny fraction of the total evidence that has been put forward to explain
the assassination. Although I have never counted pieces of evidence, nor do I
know anyone who has, I would guess that the strong evidence represents only
one-tenth to one one-hundredth of the total available for the assassination.
Thus, strong evidence is rare but critical, because any explanation that depends
on weak evidence must itself also be weak, i.e., uncertain and therefore
unreliable.
In essence, we are dividing the logical approach to the JFK assassination
into two steps. The first (our approach) uses strong evidence only and produces
conclusions that are certain, assuming of course that the strong evidence has
been properly validated. The second (that of most JFK writers) admits weak,
or weak and strong evidence, and therefore produces conclusions that are
uncertain. If you want to be sure about some aspect of the assassination, you
must restrict your evidence to the strong. If there is no strong evidence on that
question, you cannot be sure about the answer. If you just want to get a probabilistic
answer, allow weak evidence into your mix. You will never sure about your
conclusions.
Since the vast majority of evidence is weak, it follows that the vast
majority of "conclusions" drawn about the assassination should be
uncertain. And that is exactly what has happened over the past 36. The state of
the research has hardly advanced because JFK researchers insist on using weak
evidence. To repeat, using weak evidence is equivalent to "death by
uncertainty." That nasty little phrase just about describes the current
state of JFK research, too. There are as many theories as researchers, and
researchers are squabbling today about nearly the same topics that they were
three decades ago.
Here is a provisional list of strong evidence, grouped by category. I expect
to revise the list and the categories during the next weeks. Comments and
suggestions are welcome.
On the sixth floor of the TSBD
Three cartridge cases were found near the window at the
southeast corner.
They were all from Oswald's MC rifle.
Oswald's rifle was found on the sixth floor near the stairway
in the northwest corner.
His fingerprint and palmprint were on it.
No one else's prints were on it.
His palmprint was on one of the cartons at the SE window.
No one else's prints were on any cartons.
No other rifle or cartridges found.
A large brown paper bag, the right size to hold the
disassembled rifle, was found next to the SE window. It had Oswald's fingerprint
and right palmprint on it, and was fashioned from the same paper and tape as was
in the shipping room of the Depository.
JFK's head wounds
Small entrance wound found in rear near EOP.
Beveled inward (wound was larger on inner surface).
Large, irregular exit wound found on upper right rear, in
occipitoparietal area.
A part of one of three large pieces of skull from the exit
wound was beveled outward (wound was larger on outer surface)
Cone of lead tiny fragments (about 40) broadening from
entrance wound to exit wound.
Much of right hemisphere absent.
No damage to left hemisphere.
JFK's body wounds
No bullet remained in body.
Entrance wound in upper back/shoulder, 14 cm down from tip of
right mastoid process and 14 cm left of tip of right shoulder joint (right
acromion process).
Small wound in throat could be either of entrance or exit;
extended and distorted by tracheotomy.
Line of damaged tissues from back/shoulder wound to throat
wound: damage
to the right neck muscles, the top of the right lung, right pleura, and the "fascia about
the trachea" near the wound in the trachea.
Downward angle along the line of damage from back to front
was similar to the 17
degrees from the Depository.
JFK's clothing
One hole each in back of shirt and jacket. They aligned
with each other.
Fibers of each bent forward.
Nick in left side of tie; fibers not bent in any consistent
direction.
Two irregular slits in front of shirt right under button and
button hole.
Fibers around both slits were bent forward.
Holes in back of shirt and jacket fall inches below the
entrance wound.
JFK's jacket (and probably his shirt as well) was bunched inches upward just before
he was hit.
Connally's wounds
Ovoid entrance wound in right back—had been slightly
disturbed buy something first.
Cracked fifth rib.
Larger exit wound from right front chest.
(More to come...)
Connally's clothing
No evidence—clothing sent out to be cleaned before
it could be
examined.
The limousine
Two large fragments found on front seat.
Both from MC bullets; both from Oswald's rifle.
Three tiny fragments of lead found under Mrs. Connally's jump
seat.
Windshield hit and pushed forward but not penetrated; lead
fragments found on inside surface of the damaged area.
Blood and tissue from JFK's head covered the limousine from his
position forward.
CE 399
Found on a stretcher at Parkland Hospital but not known whose.
Slightly compressed at its base; slightly distorted
laterally.
Some lead lost from being squeezed out at the base.
Fired from Oswald's rifle.
Minimal damage means it must have slowed gradually rather
than hitting bone directly.
Bullet from Walker shooting
Too mashed to be traced ballistically.
NAA showed it to be consistent with MC lead and inconsistent
with most other ammunition.
The lead fragments and NAA
The five fragments fell into two groups: (1) CE 399 and
Connally's wrist; (2) brain, rear floor, and front seat.
Guinn's NAA analysis matched the FBI's earlier NAA analysis
when systematic error in FBI's results recognized.
The one large fragment in each group was traced ballistically
to Oswald's rifle.
The smaller fragments in each group are linked to the large
fragment chemically.
MC lead is heterogeneous in antimony.
The Zapruder film
Three basic movements: quick snap of head forward, quick
snap of head backward, longer and slower movement of head and body backward.
Forward snap is consistent with momentum from an MC bullet;
other movements are not.
Quick backward snap is consistent with brief jet effect from
an MC bullet.
Longer backward lurch is inconsistent with direct hit or jet
effect from a second bullet.
The diffuse cloud of fragments from JFK's head moved forward,
upward, and to the sides.
Two large fragments of skull flew upward and forward.
Tippit shooting
The revolver found on Oswald at the Texas Theatre was the
source of the four cartridge cases found near the shooting.
The bullets could not be so traced, however.
Oswald owned that revolver and had ordered it from Seaport
Traders, Inc., of Los Angeles.
A jacket discarded between the killing and the theater
belonged to Oswald.
(More to come...)
General
Immediately after the shooting, police and the crowd rushed
up the hill toward the rail yard.