A logical approach to the question of conspiracy

A logical approach to the question of conspiracy

Draft, 21 February 2000

Once the status of the individual pieces of evidence at the various hierarchical levels has been cleared up, it is a straightforward matter to use our course's pattern of reasoning [problem or question —> all possible hypotheses —> evidence —>strong evidence —> all hypotheses consistent with strong evidence —> simplest hypothesis consistent with strong evidence] to address the question of conspiracy, as follows.

The question:

Was Kennedy killed by a conspiracy, and was Oswald involved?

Possible answers

    1. Yes, he was killed by a conspiracy, and it involved Oswald.
    2. Yes, he was killed by a conspiracy, and it did not involve Oswald.
    3. No, he was killed by Oswald acting alone.
    4. No, he was killed by someone else acting alone.

Strong, validated evidence

The long version
    1. All three cartridge cases found near the southeast window on the sixth floor of the Depository had been fired from Oswald's MC rifle.
    2. His fingerprint and palmprint were on it.
    3. No one else's prints were on it.
    4. His palmprint was on one of the cartons at the SE window.
    5. No one else's prints were on any cartons.
    6. No other rifle or cartridges were found.
    7. JFK's head contained only two wounds, an entrance wound in the rear and an larger exit wound in the right upper rear side.
    8. No evidence for a second bullet striking his head.
    9. JFK's body contained two wounds, an entrance wound in the back and an exit wound in the throat.
    10. No bullet remained in his body.
    11. The downward angle along the line of damage from back to front was similar to the 17 degrees from the Depository.
    12.All of Connally's wounds were consistent with a single nonpristine bullet from the rear.
    13. Two large fragments found on front seat.
    14. Both had been fired from Oswald's rifle to the exclusion of all other rifles.
    15. Three tiny fragments of lead found under Mrs. Connally's jump seat.
    16. Windshield hit and pushed forward but not penetrated; lead fragments found on inside surface of the damaged area.
    17. Blood and tissue from JFK's head covered the limousine from his position forward.
    18. The stretcher bullet (CE 399) was slightly compressed at its base and slightly distorted laterally.
    19. It had been fired from from Oswald's rifle to th4e exclusion of all other rifles.
    20. Its minimal damage means it must have slowed gradually rather than hitting bone directly.
    21. The five lead fragments fell into two chemical groups: (1) CE 399 and Connally's wrist; (2) brain, rear floor, and front seat.
    22. Guinn's NAA analysis matched the FBI's earlier NAA analysis when systematic error in FBI's results recognized.
    23. The one large fragment in each group was traced ballistically to Oswald's rifle.
    24. The smaller fragments in each group were linked to the large fragment chemically.
    25. MC lead is heterogeneous in antimony.
    26. The quick forward snap of JFK's means that it was hit from the rear.
    27. The momentum of the snap is consistent with momentum from an MC bullet; other movements are not.
    28. Longer backward lurch is inconsistent with direct hit or jet effect from a second bullet.
    29. The diffuse cloud of fragments from JFK's head moved forward, upward, and to the sides.
    30. Two large fragments of skull flew upward and forward.
    31. The revolver found on Oswald at the Texas Theatre was the source of the four cartridge cases found near the shooting.
    32. The bullets could not be so traced, however.
    33. Oswald owned that revolver and had ordered it from Seaport Traders, Inc., of Los Angeles.
    34. A jacket discarded between the killing and the theater belonged to Oswald.

The short version
    1. The only weapon found near the killing of JFK was Oswald's rifle.
    2. It had his fingerprint and palmprint on it, and no one else's.
    3. The three cartridge cases found on the sixth floor were all fired from that rifle.
    4. All traceable fragments of bullets went to his rifle and were explained by two bullets.
    5. No physical traces of any other weapon or shooter were found.
    6. All movements of JFK in the Zapruder film were consistent with two bullets from his rifle.
    7. The chemistry of the bullet fragments, large and small, went to two bullets.
    8. Oswald's rifle seized at the Texas Theatre was the source of the four cartridges found at the Tippit scene.
    9. Oswald's jacket was found between the Tippit scene and the Texas Theatre.

Hypotheses consistent with this evidence

Simplest hypothesis consistent with this evidence

1. Oswald killed Kennedy (and Tippit) alone.

As always, this answer must be considered provisional and subject to challenge by additional evidence.

Possible challenges

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