A logical approach to the single-bullet
theory
Revised draft 8 August 2001
The famous single-bullet theory (SBT) arouses more passions in the JFK
critical community than perhaps any other topic. Anyone who dares mention it
seriously becomes an immediate outcast. This attitude implies one of two things:
that the theory is so ridiculous as to not warrant the slightest attention, or
that it is actually such a serious threat to the idea of conspiracy that people
are afraid to even bring it up lest somehow it take root.
I have always been unhappy about discussions of the SBT, for reasons that I
couldn't quite put my finger on. It now appears that the critical method used in
my JFK class
PSC404
[problem or question —> all possible hypotheses —>
evidence —>reliable evidence —> all hypotheses consistent with
reliable evidence —> simplest hypothesis
consistent with reliable evidence] can be quite helpful in reframing this
discussion. Here is how it goes. The result establishes the SBT as the only
reasonable explanation for the totality of relevant data. This is not proof,
however. Scientific proof comes by adding one small but critical point related
to the geometry of Dealey Plaza—that a shot from any of the buildings must
enter the car at a downward angle to it. This plus the strengthened NAA settle
the question once and for all. (See "The
Scientific SBT.")
The question:
Kennedy's body had two wounds, one in the upper back/neck, and one in the
throat. Connally had wounds in his back, rib, chest, right inner wrist and outer
wrist, and left thigh. [The famous "seven wounds."] What best explains these wounds?
Possible answers
1. One shot from the Depository (the SBT).
2. One shot from somewhere else in the right rear (modified SBT).
3. One shot from the rear and one from the front (to JFK's
throat).
4. Two shots from the front.
5. Two shots from the rear with the same rifle.
6. Two shots from the rear with different rifles.
7. Some other combination of front and rear shots.
8. All shots from the front, which were later modified surgically to appear to have come from the
rear (Lifton's Best Evidence theory).
Reliable evidence
1. JFK hit in the back/neck by a pristine bullet (size and shape of wound; fibers
around hole in shirt and jacket bent forward).
2. JFK's throat wound was one of exit (fibers in both sides of shirt bent
forward; no exit hole for bullet entering the throat from front; no bullet in
the body).
3. No bullet was found in Kennedy or Connally's body
(autopsy).
4. Connally hit in back by nonpristine bullet (ovoid shape of wound plus
decreased extent of damage).
5. No damage to rear part of limousine (passenger area) from a
bullet (WCR).
6. Only one one bullet available to have caused the wounds
(CE 399).
7. Kennedy and Connally could have been properly aligned to have been hit by
the same bullet at about the required time (WCR).
8. The time between Kennedy and Connally's injuries was too short for the MC
rifle to have been fired twice (0–1.5 sec vs. the
needed 2.3 sec).
9. The lead fragment from Connally's wrist matches the lead
of the stretcher
bullet CE 399 and no other fragments (NAA).
10. CE 399 was fired from Oswald's rifle to the exclusion of all other
rifles (WCR).
11. CE 399 is deformed consistent with having hit soft tissue at a speed of
roughly 1800 feet per second (Fackler
plot).
12. Kennedy's two wounds and a series of damaged tissues between them formed a downward-sloping line between the back
wound and
the throat wound. (See diagram by
Dr. John Lattimer.)
13. Connally's five wounds formed a rough downward-sloping line between his
back wound and his thigh wound (WCR).
Hypotheses consistent with the reliable evidence
1. One shot from the Depository (the SBT).
2. One shot from somewhere else in the right rear (modified SBT).*
(*Would require a bullet traceable to a rifle other than Oswald's. No such
bullet was found. This hypothesis is retained temporarily on the off chance
that its bullet might somehow have been deflected out of the car without leaving
a trace of itself and that CE 399 was planted and just happened to match the
fragments in Connally's wrist.)
Hypotheses 3,4, and 7 eliminated because they require a frontal shot.
Hypothesis 5 eliminated because two shots can't be fired from the same rifle in
the time allowed.
Hypothesis 6 eliminated because Connally's back wound was not from a pristine
bullet.
Hypothesis 8 eliminated because of its extreme infeasibility
(plus the web of
physical evidence that stands or falls together).
Simplest hypothesis consistent with this evidence
1. One shot from the Depository (SBT). [Much simpler than Hypothesis 2.]
This answer must be considered the provisional, or working, hypothesis. It is
subject to challenge from additional evidence.
Challenges to the SBT
1. The bullet had to bob and weave and remain suspended in mid-air in order to
pass through both men. [False. Based on misunderstanding of the men's relative
position in the limousine.]
2. CE 399 was not damaged enough to have caused seven
wounds n two men. [False. It was damaged heavily, although not enough to break
it apart.]
3. Bullets don't pass through two men and remain essentially
undamaged. [Of course they do. That's the purpose of FMJ bullets—to
wound but not kill.]
4. Ruby planted CE 399. [No evidence for this other than
rumor.]
5. The fragments used for the NAA could have been tampered
with because they passed through the hands of the FBI. [This idea is now
disproven logically. See the monograph "Neutron
activation and the JFK Assassination."]
6. The SBT was created ad hoc to avoid acknowledging
conspiracy. [Wrong. It was developed to resolve a major contradiction in the
physical evidence. It has stood for 37 years.]
7. CE 399 had no blood or tissue on it. [But it may have had
something—see FBI SA Frazier's testimony.]
8. The HSCA concluded that the bullet through Kennedy's body
passed slightly upward. [So it was fired from the trunk? We now can prove that
it was fired downwards—see "The
Scientific SBT".]
