A logical approach to the Tippit shooting
Draft, 20 February 2000
The late David W. Belin, who was one of only two Warren Commission lawyers who worked intensely with all the evidence from the assassination, has written that the slaying of Officer J. D. Tippit shortly after the assassination of President Kennedy is the Rosetta Stone of the assassination. Many critics of the Commission disagree with him, some strongly. Belin believed Oswald did it; many critics don't. I believe that our logical approach to questions in the assassination [problem or question —> all possible hypotheses —> evidence —>strong evidence —> all hypotheses consistent with strong evidence —> simplest hypothesis consistent with strong evidence] can help resolve this question. Here is my first attempt at it.
The question:
Who shot Officer J. D. Tippit while he was patrolling in Oak Cliff?
Possible answers
1. Lee Harvey Oswald.
2. Someone else.
Strong, validated evidence
1. Oswald owned the Smith and Wesson .38 caliber pistol
that killed Officer Tippit.
2. Oswald was carrying that pistol when he was arrested in
the Texas Theatre abut 45 minutes later.
3. All four cartridge cases found at the scene of the murder
were traced to that pistol the the exclusion of all other weapons.
4. One firearms expert (Joseph D. Nicol) said that one of the
four bullets from Tippit's body could be traced to Oswald's weapon; three other
experts said that the bullets were consistent with the weapon but not traceable
to it.
5. Oswald was identified in separate lineups by six witnesses
to the shooting or the escape of the gunman: W. W. Scoggins (cab driver), Ted
Callaway, Sam Guinyard, Helen Markham, and Barbara and Jeanette Davis (whose
lawn the shooter cut across as he was beginning to flee the scene).
Hypotheses consistent with this evidence
1. Oswald shot Tippit.
2. Someone who resembled Oswald used Oswald's pistol to shoot
Tippit and then gave the pistol back to Oswald before or after he entered the
theater.
Simplest hypothesis consistent with this evidence
1. Oswald did it.
This answer must be considered provisional, or a working hypothesis. It is subject to challenge by additional evidence.
Possible challenges
1. Oswald did not have time enough to reach the crime
scene from his rooming house. [Helen Markham put the time of the slaying at
"just after 1:06 p.m. Since Oswald arrived at his rooming house about 1
p.m. and left there a few minutes later, he would not have been able to reach
the crime scene by 1:06 p.m.]
Response: The time of the shooting can be set at 1:15 or 1:16
by the call to police headquarters that Domingo Benavides made on Tippit's
police radio immediately after the shooting. This extra ten minutes relative to
Markham's estimate gives Oswald enough time to reach the site.]
2.