1	Neutron Activation and the JFK Assassination Kenneth A. Rahn and Larry M. Sturdivan Solving the Great American Murder Mystery Duquesne University, Pittsburgh 23 November 2003
2	Parts To This Talk The Setting NAA and Results Significance Potential Problems and Answers Conclusions
3	The Setting
4	No Conspiracy Possible—Precluded By Chance Nature of Events
5	Four Parallel strands of chance brought Oswald-Kennedy and Ruby-Oswald together.
6	Strand 1—Oswald To Kennedy October 3, 1963—Arrives in Dallas from Mexico, badly needing work—just when TSBD was hiring seasonal workers. Oct. 4—Applies for job with Padgett Printing Corp., declined because of bad recommendation from prior job.
7	"Oct." Oct. 14—Ruth Paine learns from neighbor Linnie Mae Randle that TSBD is hiring, arranges interview. Oct. 15—Oswald interviews. Oct. 16—Oswald begins work. Oct. 20—Marina bears second child.
8	Long Before Motorcade Planned Trip announced Sept. 24^th, but with no motorcade in Dallas. Motorcade added between Oct. 28^th and Nov. 18^th, 2–5 weeks after Oswald started at TSBD. Final route decided on Nov. 18^th, announced in papers Nov. 19^th. Map published Nov. 21^st.
9	That gave only 3 days to plan. In fact, Oswald planned it only 1 day before.
10	Strand 2—Kennedy To Oswald: “The Three Furies” (James Reston, Jr., and Joel Grant)
11	First Fury TCU cancels honorary degree. Creates dead time Friday morning (22^nd) in Ft. Worth. Breakfast event planned hastily. Still leaves two hours open before noontime speech in Dallas.
12	Second Fury Kennedy wants motorcade through Dallas (seventh of trip). Connally opposes it—would make Kennedy too tired at luncheon. Kennedy wins. But—route depends on site of luncheon.
13	Third Fury Kennedy, SS want Women’s Building. Motorcade would cross Dealey Plaza on Main Street (middle of plaza). Much farther from TSBD, moves faster.
14	"Opposite direction makes Mrs." Opposite direction makes Mrs. Kennedy block shooter from TSBD. But—Connally insists on Trade Mart The rest is history.
15	Strand 3—Ruby to Oswald
16	Ruby’s Sunday Morning 9–9:30—Gets up. 10:00—Oswald scheduled to be transferred from city jail to county jail. 10:19—Receives second phone call from dancer Karen Carlin requesting $25. Says he is going downtown and will send it from there. 10:20—Takes 30–40 minutes to bathe and dress. 11:00—Leaves for Western Union office. Takes revolver, radio, and favorite dog Sheba.
17	"11:00–11:15—Drives past Dealey Plaza;" 11:00–11:15—Drives past Dealey Plaza; notes crowd outside police station. 11:15—Parks at Western Union. Leaves keys, billfold, $1000 in trunk. Puts key in glove compartment and leaves car unlocked. 11:15—With revolver and $2000 cash, enters Western Union office, fills out forms to wire $25 to Carlin. Waits in line. 11:17—Gets receipt. Walks half block to police station and enters basement via ramp briefly unguarded. 11:21—Oswald enters basement. Ruby lunges and shoots him in abdomen.
18	Ruby Did Not Conspire to Kill Oswald. Was impulse. Biggest argument for conspiracy invalidated.
19	Strand 4—Oswald to Ruby
20	Oswald’s Transfer Delayed Twice. Postal Inspector Harry Holmes decides at last minute to skip church and question Oswald further. That takes an hour. Then Oswald requests to change into dark sweater for TV. That takes 10 minutes.
21	Without the questioning or the sweater, Ruby would have arrived too late.
22	The Four Strands of Chance… Oswald to TSBD and Kennedy (Neighbor’s brother) Kennedy to Oswald (Three Furies) Oswald to Ruby (Two delays) Ruby to Oswald ($25 for dancer)
23	…Clear Oswald and Ruby of Conspiracy
24	Could It Be That There Was No Conspiracy At All?
25	If so: All evidence for conspiracy will fail. Conspiracy theories will be all over the map.
26	All major evidence for conspiracy does indeed fail. Rearward lurch in Zapruder film. “Magic” bullet. Acoustics. Shooter on knoll.
27	Rearward lurch was second movement, not first. First was forward, too quick to be seen in real time.
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29	Rearward lurch starts too late and accelerates too long to be from bullet.
30	"“Magic”" “Magic” bullet not only could have passed through both men (penetrating power and proper alignment), but was damaged consistent with having done so.
31	Horizontal Alignment
32	Vertical Alignment
33	Line of Damage Through The Neck
34	Distortion By Critics
35	The “pristine” bullet …
36	Was hardly that!
37	Can it pass through two men? It can pass through 4 feet of pine and can kill elephants.
38	47 Inches of Pine Without Deforming
39	The HSCA and Acoustics Claimed that the shots recorded from police radio. Microphone stuck open in Dealey Plaza. Acoustics experts “found” 4 shots, 1 from knoll. Chairman rammed through at 11^th hour. Declared “probably” (95%) a conspiracy.
40	Big Problem They got the wrong motorcycle. It was miles from Dealey Plaza. It recorded no shots, only other traffic.
41	The didn’t check anywhere else on the tape. (No “control” experiment.)
42	DPD knew all along whose motorcycle it was, but HSCA wouldn’t listen.
43	Acoustics Fails As Evidence For Conspiracy.
44	Shooter On The Knoll Pro (Weak) Shot(s) heard from that direction. One witness claimed to see shooter there. Big rearward lurch. Con (Strong) No physical trace there (rifle, shells, clear sighting). No damage to left hemisphere of Kennedy’s brain. All fragments from crime scene trace back to Oswald’s rifle ballistically/chemically. Too close up there—bystanders would have seen and heard. (See next photos.)
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47	"Closeness makes shot good." Closeness makes shot good. Also makes shooter obvious. No shooter detected there.
48	“Badgeman” from the Moorman’s Polaroid See if you believe he was really there.
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50	North Knoll Sniper
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53	Shooter on knoll fails as evidence for conspiracy.
54	All major evidence for conspiracy fails The rearward lurch The “magic” bullet The acoustics Shooter on knoll
55	Validates first prediction of nonconspiracy. Next: Are conspiracy scenarios all over the place?
56	How Many Theories Would You Like? At least 100 by my count. Nearly every writer proposes different theory. You can find anything in them that you want.
57	How Many Shots Would You Like? ≥3, ≥2–4, ≤4, Probably 4, 4?, 4, 4–6, >4–6, 5, 6, ≥6 (“fusillade”), 6–9, at least 6–7, 7, 8–10, ≥9, and “volley.”
58	How Many Gunmen Would You Like? Number of gunmen front/rear = 0/2, 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 2–3/2, 1/≥2, ≥1/≥1, ≥1/≥2, 1/2?, 2?/2?, ≥1/?, 1?/1?, ?/?, 6 total >2 rear, only front.
59	Which Shooters Would You Like? Probably not Oswald Not Oswald George Hickey Oswald + ? Oswald + “Raymo” Three teams “Saul,” the European assassin
60	"“Probably Oswald”" “Probably Oswald” plus others “World-class assassin” Probably foreign nationals Oswald “double” in Depository, friend of CIA Mexico City station chief at knoll CIA plus outsiders not Oswald Richard Cain and Chuckie Nicoletti, from Chicago, plus CIA’s Roscoe White, J.D. Tippit, Oswald, and Frank Fiorini Deputy Sheriff Harry Weatherford, from County Records Building James Files
61	Elbow to Elbow At Dealey Plaza 67 conspirators identified as being present, hardly leaving room for anyone else.
62	Which Instigators Would You Like? Oswald alone Accident Lyndon B. Johnson Mafia (Carlos Marcello) CIA Covert Operations Hoffa/Mafia/Hoover CIA right-wing anti-Castroites + Cubans Marcello + Hoover CIA + Mafia Clay Shaw and right-wing anti-Castroites, including CIA Military/industrial complex, Mafia, CIA “Secret Team” of 100 powerful Americans Business/crime/military
63	More Instigators Texas oil barons, VP Johnson + possibly his wife, Hoover, Dallas law enforcement, Mafia Military/Industrial/Intelligence complex = Secret Team CIA “The British,” presumably the government US intelligence community Mafia, CIA, Dallas law enforcement, Dallas mayor CIA, Mafia Castro plotters Executive branch of US government, including Secret Service “Secret Team,” including Secret Service Complex “cowboy” cabal “Secret Team” + educational establishment and Catholic school hierarchy The Israeli Mossad Rogue elements of CIA + Mafia Vietnamese
64	Which Weapons and Projectiles Would You like? Rifles. Pistols. AR-15 of Secret Service. Regular bullets. Frangible bullets. Ice bullets. Poison darts shot through umbrellas.
65	Where Would You Like Them To Shoot From? The Depository. The Dal-Tex Building. The knoll. The railroad overpass. The roofs of at least two buildings. The storm drain. The trees. A helicopter. The curb. The presidential limousine.
66	How Would You Like Them To Work? Independently. Under radio control. Single shooters. Teams.
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68	Two New Photos Just Discovered Show Who Really Killed JFK. Look Carefully.
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71	Pictures © Breitlinks, Inc. Used by permission of Bill Breitsprecher.
72	Why So Many Theories? (Nearly As Many As Writers) No definitive evidence for any of them. Everybody is guessing differently.
73	Conspiracy theories all over the place. Evidence for conspiracy fails. Both predictions from no conspiracy upheld.
74	The Setting for The NAA… No Conspiracy
75	Strong Prediction for Bullet Fragments Will be consistent with single shooter. And that’s exactly what we see.
76	Bullets and Fragments Received by the FBI
77	Locations of Fragments
78	The NAA Analyses
79	The goal of the NAA analyses: To try to determine how many bullets hit the men by associating the little fragments with the larger, engraved fragments.
80	That had also been the goal of the spectroscopic analysis, but it failed.
81	Answer: Positive evidence for two and only two bullets, both fired from Oswald’s rifle. One of the strongest results from any of the physical evidence.
82	Related goal (for 2003): Evaluate the possibility of an accidental chemical match from another bullet. Clear answer: It didn’t happen.
83	"By FBI in May 1964..." By FBI in May 1964 (for WC) Contained multiple systematic errors. Kept secret by FBI. By Vincent P. Guinn of UC Irvine in 1977 (for HSCA) Highly publicized. Showed two clear groups of fragments. Agreed with FBI’s analysis.
84	The NAA Results
85	The FBI’s results for Ag and Sb, ppm
86	Guinn’s results for Ag and Sb, ppm
87	Silver (Ag) much less informative than antimony (Sb)
88	The FBI and Dr. Guinn found the same two groups
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90	Are the Two Groups Distinct?
91	Tests of Distinctness Just look at individual samples. Just look at means and their standard deviations. Test difference of means. General Linear Model analysis.
92	1. Examine individual samples.
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94	2. Examine group means and their standard deviations.
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96	The means are 8 σ apart.
97	3. Test significance of means.
98	First find the underlying distribution of Sb in WCC/MC bullets
99	Try Gaussian (Normal) First Following standard statistical procedure
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101	Not a normal (“Gaussian”) distribution because the points are skewed on one end.
102	Try Lognormal Distribution Following standard statistical approach of moving least distance from Normal
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104	Lognormal distribution works because points fall close to the straight line.
105	The fragments from the assassination fall on the straight part of the line.
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107	Testing the means Use observed lognormal distribution. Natural logs of Sb in the five samples are 6.73, 6.68, 6,40, 6.43, 6,46. Means and standard deviations of the two groups are 6.71±0.04 and 6.43±0.03. Two-sided p < 0.0028. (< 1/360 chance that the means are the same)
108	Note: Same Answer With Normal Distribution! Group 1 = 833 and 797 ppm Mean ± std dev = 815 ± 25 ppm (3.1%) Group 2 = 602, 621, and 645 ppm Mean ± std dev = 623 ± 22 ppm (3.5%) Two-sided p < 0.0028. (< 1/360 chance that the means are the same)
109	4. General Linear Model analysis
110	"Assumes no underlying distribution." Assumes no underlying distribution. “Group” variable has F-statistic that corresponds to a probability of 0.001 to 0.0001. That means probability of only 1/10³ to 1/10⁴ that the groups arose by chance. Similar answer to simpler test of means. Agrees with visual impression and 8-σ separation of means.
111	Conclusion: The two groups are distinct. All four tests give same answer.
112	Huge Significance of Distinct Groups
113	"Traces all recovered fragments to..." Traces all recovered fragments to Oswald’s rifle. Proves that Oswald’s rifle was fired that day.
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115	"Shows that no fragments or..." Shows that no fragments or cartridge cases were planted. (Statistical proofs to be shown shortly) Shows that there must have been a forward snap. (Bullet from rear must snap head forward.) Validates speed of forward snap in Zapruder film. (Bullet from rear and simple physics.) Shows that big rearward lurch not from frontal hit. (Both bullets hit from rear; lurch has properties of something other than bullet.)
116	"Renders locations of entrance and..." Renders locations of entrance and exit wounds to JFK’s head irrelevant. Bullet came from Oswald’s rifle in TSBD (ballistic engraving on front-seat fragment). Bullet passed through JFK’s head (NAA match to front-seat fragment). Bullet came to rest on front seat. So don’t need to know where it entered and where it exited. Renders location of JFK’s back wound irrelevant. Bullet came from Oswald’s rifle in TSBD (engravings on CE 399). Bullet had to pass through Kennedy’s body (DBH). Bullet hit Connally’s arm and left fragment (NAA match to CE 399). So don’t need to know details of passage through JFK’s body.
117	"Renders offset of holes in..." Renders offset of holes in JFK’s clothing moot. (Same reasoning as above.) Invalidates all conspiracy theories with other shooters or planted bullets. (To be demonstrated shortly.)
118	"Provides best shooting scenario." Provides best shooting scenario. First shot early (Z150–160 or so). Missed and hit street or grass. Rushed shot as car passing under tree. Second shot around Z222–224. Passed through both men and recovered as CE 399 (stretcher bullet). Third shot Z312–313. Passed through right rear of JFK’s head. Exited as 3 large fragments, 2 of which were recovered from front seat. The 3^rd (large piece of lead core) flew over windshield and down to Tague.
119	"Brings Oswald much closer to..." Brings Oswald much closer to the crime: His rifle did it all. His prints on rifle and boxes. His clipboard. His paper bag. His backyard photo with rifle and pistol. His flight from TSBD. His killing of Tippit in cold blood. His attempt to kill again in Texas Theater.
120	In Other Words, The NAA Shows That Two Bullets From Oswald’s Rifle Did It all.
121	Potential Problems and Answers
122	"Heterogeneity of Sb in WCC/MC..." Heterogeneity of Sb in WCC/MC bullets blends groups. 14 samples not enough to establish a distribution. Can’t distinguish distributions. Fragments planted. Chance match of fragments from additional shooters or planted fragments. Incorrect metallurgical assumptions (Randich and Tobin). It doesn’t prove anything!
123	Heterogeneity of Sb
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127	Paradox: Bullets are heterogeneous but groups are not. Why?
128	FBI’s subfragments hold the answer. WCC/MC lead is homogeneous at the scale of subfragments.
129	Implies that the groups were formed on scale of subfragments. Easy to verify for stretcher bullet and fragment from its base deposited in Connally’s arm. For head group, all fragments must have been produced very near one another. This follows from how jacketed bullets break (next slide).
130	How a jacketed bullet breaks when entering a skull Hits skull bone. Nose flattens, bends sideways. Internal pressure increases, jacket ruptures. Fine spray of lead ejected from surface of break. Core stretches like taffy.
131	Residual core of Mannlicher-Carcano bullet fired from Oswald’s rifle
132	"Piece of lead may be..." Piece of lead may be torn off, with or without casing. Loose core can break into large pieces that retain momentum and exit through single hole. Exposed lead can hit bone while exiting and shed fragment(s) of lead (like CE 399 on Connally’s arm). Fragment comes from taffy-like surface near fine spray, so is similar in composition.
133	Are 14 Samples Enough to Establish A Distribution?
134	14 Samples Work Fine
135	Can’t Distinguish Distributions?
136	You Don’t Have To! Major Distributions Essentially the Same Except for Extremes
137	Common Symmetrical Distributions
138	Common Asymmetrical Distributions
139	Fragments Planted? Timeline is too restricted. Probabilities are too low.
140	Timeline For Planting Fragments Between shooting and FBI’s spectrographic analysis that night? (A few hours only)
141	"Needed incredible knowledge and control..." Needed incredible knowledge and control by conspirators. Must anticipate type of weapon, number of shots, number and location of hits, types and sizes of fragments to be expected. Must fire bullets from weapon in advance, recover fragments of various sizes and shapes from targets that simulate the human body. Must plant false fragments carefully enough that even ballistic professionals would not notice. Must plant rifle and hide real one. Must understand the unusual properties of WCC/MC ammunition found by Guinn a decade later.
142	Brings To Mind Jean Davison’s “To Do” Lists
143	Conspirators’ “To Do” List
144	Before… Get Oswald's rifle and camera. Fake backyard photos. Forge Oswald's writing on back of backyard photo. Hire Oswald look-alike(s). Send to rifle range, gun shop, etc.
145	"Anticipate all possible shooting scenarios" Anticipate all possible shooting scenarios. Fire WCC/MC bullets into human body or equivalent. Recover bullets, fragments, and shells. Sneak gunman and rifle into TSBD. Make sure Oswald has no alibi for time of shooting.
146	After… Get gunman out of Depository and to safely. Plant stretcher bullet or switch with real "pointed" bullet. Fake x-rays, autopsy photos, wounds on body. Fake Zapruder film.
147	Oswald’s “To Do” List 1. Get rifle, shoot Kennedy. 2. Get pistol, shoot Tippit.
148	Timeline, cont’d Between OES and FBI’s NAA of May 1964? Unwarranted—No reason to cover up extremely inconclusive results of OES. OES results kept secret for years, anyhow. Between FBI’s NAA and Guinn’s NAA in 1977? Didn’t happen, because Guinn’s data matches FBI’s.
149	Conclusion: Planting Virtually Impossible
150	Probabilities of chance match also eliminate planting
151	Two Ways To Estimate Probability Of Chance Matches From continuous distribution From GLM on FBI data
152	From Continuous Distribution Establish a population of Sb in WCC/MC bullets (Guinn’s 14 test bullets). Find the distribution by plotting. Normal? No. Lognormal? Yes. Choose two fragments that might be accidental match (Q1 and Q9, with Q9 as reference). Calculate standard normal variates for these fragments. Area between them is probability of chance match. Double the area to allow second to be higher or lower. Result = 2% probability of chance. (2%–3% for matches in other group) Drops by 10–100 X for random ammo (i.e., to 1/1000 to 1/10,000). Drops to 0 for cores of pure lead or hardened lead. Conclusion: Single chance matches ruled out.
153	From GLM on FBI’s replicate data GLM analysis works on unequal sample sizes (2–3 samples per group and 2–5 replicates per sample). Measurements nested within specimens; specimens nested within groups. No distribution assumed. Errors assumed distributed normally.
154	Results of GLM analysis “Group” variable is highly significant. “Weight” and “Specimen” variables are not significant. Meaning: Nearly all variance explained by the grouping; specimens within groups not significantly different from each other. With logs of concentrations: “Group” is more significant; “Weight” significant; “Specimen” not significant. “Weight” significance shows a systematic error in FBI’s analysis.
155	Results, cont’d F-value for group = 51; corresponds to p = 0.000. How low? Since F =16.6 gives p = 0.001, F = 51 means 1–2 decades lower, or 1/10⁴ to 1/10⁵. Meaning: Probability of five random WCC/MC fragments grouping in the observed way is 1/10⁴ to 1/10⁵.
156	But this is best-possible scenario. It assumes that conspirators (shooters or planters) know all about WCC/MC ammunition. This low probability is completely unavoidable. Drops by another factor of 10 to 100 if other ammunition is used. (Becomes 1/10⁵ to 1/10⁷.) Drops to 0 if hardened lead cores are used. Result: Chance groupings ruled out.
157	Two independent statistical calculations give same result. Continuous distribution: Probabilities of 1 or 2 chance matches are extremely small (2%–3% at best; 0–10^-4 for realistic scenarios). No assumed distribution (GLM): Probabilities of 5 chance matches making 2 groups are vanishingly small (10^-5 to 10^-6 at best; 0–10^-7 for realistic scenarios).
158	The Improbability Of Conspiracy Theories One Random Match
159	Two Random Matches
160	Five Random Matches
161	Conclusion: All Popular Conspiracy Theories Are Eliminated Mathematically
162	Metallurgical Assumptions Does Randich-Tobin apply here?
163	Randich and Tobin (2003) Bullets or fragments from a crime scene cannot be associated positively with samples from bullets linked to a suspect. Because lead alloys from secondary lead refiners are indistinguishable even over many years. Conversely, distinguishable compositions can come from the same melt. Thus, similar compositions do not necessarily mean the same “source,” and different compositions do not necessarily mean different “sources.”
164	Conclusions The same composition “may” mean the same source. Different compositions “may” mean different sources.
165	Why R-T does not apply to JFK R-T considered broad question of matching bullets or fragments from crime scene to bullets found at different place. JFK deals with relations between bullets and fragments from same crime scene. The scenarios are very different. Much stronger conclusions can rightly be drawn from the much tighter JFK situation.
166	The JFK Equivalent To Randich And Tobin Collect one or two fragments from the crime scene. Find Oswald’s box of bullets. Analyze them both and compare the compositions.
167	But The NAA Doesn’t Prove Anything!
168	Of course it does! It proves many important things. Fragments fall into 2 separate groups. Only grouping that makes physical sense. Every fragment recovered came from Oswald’s rifle. All damage that day came from two bullets from Oswald’s rifle. Oswald’s rifle was actually fired that day. No fragments were planted. Disproves all conspiracy theories that involve other shooters or planted bullets.
169	Proofs, cont’d Validates forward head snap in Zapruder film. Shows that there must have been a forward snap. Proves that rearward lurch could not have been from a frontal bullet. Proves that throat would was exit, not entrance. Proves that not necessary to know exact placement of entrance and exit wounds to JFK’s head and body. Proves the offset of holes in JFK’s shirt and jacket to be moot.
170	The NAA is truly the “Queen of the physical evidence.”
171	Conclusions
172	"NAA is key to physical..." NAA is key to physical evidence. Cements it all together into an impregnable wall. Disproves virtually all conspiracy theories advanced in the last 40 years. In short, the NAA allows everything to fall into place. No valid physical evidence challenges the original view of three shots from Oswald’s rifle. It remains highly unlikely that there is anything material left to be discovered.
173	Forty years of failed speculation is enough.
174	It is time to admit there was no conspiracy and never was any compelling evidence for it.
175	Real story of the assassination: One misfit guy, a cheap but effective rifle, and good vantage point, and some luck.
176	It is over.
177	It was the product of chance, not conspiracy.
178	Thank you!
179	President John F. Kennedy