33. Scenario 2

This scenario takes the other view of the alleged frontal shot, namely that a single bullet from the front created the snap, the explosion, the forward-moving cloud, the large fragments that also moved forward, and the rearward lurch of the body. As with scenario 1, there are serious problems with this view. In fact, it is impossible. The sections below document this conclusion.

The procedure for calculating
It is tempting to keep the focus on the balance of momentum by dropping back to calculational scenario L5L, the one just before the four time intervals are added. The results for this scenario (not shown here) indicate that momentum and energy can be conserved, however, for the bullet, body, cloud, and large fragments, at least for some basic solutions. This standpoint makes the frontal hit seem feasible. But when scenario SL6L is used, however, it is seen that the timings for snap and lurch nearly always fail, along with other variables some of the time. Thus this scenario doesn't work.

The calculations
Results are shown below for a modified scenario SL6L, which incorporates the full suite of times and three-dimensional motions (plus the Θ_v and Θ_h from scenario 1 of the last section) but does not involve the tricky R_head and R_bullet of SL6A. Scenario 6 was chosen over scenario 7 in order to set the potential energy, a more fundamental variable than the v_cloud of scenario 7. Default settings for the other variables were used, which includes m_head = 5–7 lb, Θ_v = 9°, Θ_h = 118°, m_cloud = 0.3 lb, d_snap = 2.4 in, and PE = 300 ft-lb. The first calculations are for a Mannlicher-Carcano, with m_bullet = 161 gr and v_bullet = 2067 ft s^-1.

The results for snap and lurch
The results are shown below separately for m_head = 5, 6, and 7 lb. Allowed values are shown in bold green, disallowed values in red. The constraints are as before: 0 < t_snap < 54.6 ms, 0 < t_lurch < 25 ms, v_snap ≥ 3.3 ft s^-1, 0 < v_frags, v_cloud < 1100 ft s^-1.

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	45.4	6.9	-4.41	868	-2.62	383	Disallowed
-50	47.9	4.4	-4.18	1361	—	—	Disallowed
-100	50.6	1.6	-3.95	3718	—	—	Disallowed
-150	53.8	-1.5	-3.72	3928	—	—	Disallowed
-200	57.3	-5.1	-3.49	1181	-1.98	213	Disallowed
-250	61.4	-9.1	-3.26	657	-2.60	438	Disallowed
-300	66.0	-13.8	-3.03	435	-2.60	476	Disallowed

The results for m_head = 5 lb give all negative snaps, which of course cannot be. This is the killer result. Beyond that, half of the values for t_snap, t_lurch, and v_frags are disallowed. Overall, none of the solutions are allowed.

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	54.4	-2.2	-3.67	2780	—	—	Disallowed
-50	57.4	-5.2	-3.48	1162	-2.14	234	Disallowed
-100	60.8	-8.5	-3.29	705	-2.67	431	Disallowed
-150	64.5	-12.3	-3.10	488	-2.70	474	Disallowed
-200	68.8	-16.5	-2.91	363	-2.67	490	Disallowed
-250	73.6	-21.4	-2.72	280	-2.62	496	Disallowed
-300	79.2	-27.0	-2.52	222	-2.57	498	Disallowed

The results for m_head = 6 lb are killed twice, by negative t_lurch and v_snap. The values for t_lurch are negative because the values for t_snap are too large. They are so large because the snap is so slow, and that is because of the near-perpendicular angle from the fence to the plane of the limousine. Again, none of the solutions are allowed.

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	63.5	-11.2	-3.15	534	-2.79	468	Disallowed
-50	67.0	-14.7	-2.99	407	-2.77	487	Disallowed
-100	70.9	-18.6	-2.82	322	-2.73	496	Disallowed
-150	75.3	-23.2	-2.66	260	-2.69	501	Disallowed
-200	80.3	-28.0	-2.49	214	-2.64	503	Disallowed
-250	85.9	-33.7	-2.33	178	-2.60	503	Disallowed
-300	92.4	-40.2	-2.16	149	-2.55	503	Disallowed

The results for m_head = 7 lb are the clearest of all: t_snap, t_lurch, and v_snap are all disallowed in all cases. That disallows all of the solutions.

Summary for Mannlicher-Carcano bullets
None of the 21 solutions were allowed. Two main factors caused this: rearward snaps (disallowed) and too-slow snaps. Thus we conclude that a Mannlicher-Carcano rifle fired from the knoll could not have caused JFK's motions.

Same test for XP-100 Fireball
Robert Vernon has been pushing the idea that James Files has confessed to firing the fatal head shot from near the corner of the stockade fence on the grassy knoll. He claims to have used an XP-100 Fireball modified to take Remington .222 rounds instead of the standard .221 rounds. The modified round would keep the weight of 50 grains but have a muzzle velocity of 3140 ft s^-1 instead of the conventional 2650 ft s^-1 for the .221 round. Files/Vernon further claim that this bullet did the damage seen to JFK's head, which means that it exploded it. The previous section showed that the XP-100 could not come close to explaining the rearward lurch by a simple transfer of momentum. Here we check whether it could create the lurch via an explosion. The tables below were generated in the same was as for the Mannlicher-Carcano above, except that a mass of 50 grains and an impact velocity of 3140 ft s^-1 was used (full muzzle velocity to be generous).

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	96.2	-43.7	-2.08	137	-2.04	409	Disallowed
-50	99.6	-47.2	-2.01	127	-2.03	410	Disallowed
-100	103.2	-50.9	-1.94	118	-2.02	410	Disallowed
-150	107.2	-54.8	-1.87	109	-2.00	410	Disallowed
-200	111.5	-59.1	-1.79	102	-1.99	410	Disallowed
-250	116.1	-63.7	-1.72	94	-1.97	409	Disallowed
-300	121.1	-68.7	-1.65	87	-1.96	409	Disallowed

The results for all three values of m_head give the same pattern: all values of t_snap, t_lurch, and v_snap are disallowed (for the same reasons as above) and all values of v_frags, v_lurch, and v_cloud are allowed. They collectively disallow all the solutions. The difference between these results and those for the Mannlicher-Carcano is that these (for the XP-100 Fireball) are farther into the disallowed region.

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	115.4	-63.0	-1.73	95	-2.02	411	Disallowed
-50	119.5	-67.1	-1.67	89	-2.01	411	Disallowed
-100	123.9	-71.5	-1.61	84	-2.00	411	Disallowed
-150	128.6	-76.3	-1.56	79	-1.99	411	Disallowed
-200	133.8	-81.4	-1.50	74	-1.98	411	Disallowed
-250	139.3	-86.9	-1.44	69	-1.96	410	Disallowed
-300	145.3	-93.0	-1.38	65	-1.95	409	Disallowed

v_bulletafter, ft s^-1	t_snap, ms	t_lurch, ms	v_snap, ft s^-1	v_frags, ft s^-1	v_lurch, ft s^-1	v_cloud, ft s^-1	Overall result
-0	134.6	-82.2	-1.49	73	-2.01	412	Disallowed
-50	139.4	-87.0	-1.44	69	-2.00	412	Disallowed
-100	144.5	-92.2	-1.38	65	-1.99	412	Disallowed
-150	150.1	-97.7	-1.33	61	-1.98	411	Disallowed
-200	156.1	-103.7	-1.28	58	-1.97	411	Disallowed
-250	162.5	-110.1	-1.23	54	-1.96	410	Disallowed
-300	169.6	-117.2	-1.18	51	-1.94	410	Disallowed

The results for m_head = 7 lb are the clearest of all: t_snap, t_lurch, and v_snap are all disallowed in all cases. That disallows all of the solutions.

Summary for XP-100 bullets
All solutions disallowed, and by greater margins than for the Mannlicher-Carcano bullets. The XP-100 does not have the momentum to move the head fast enough to allow any time for a lurch.