(Abbreviations: HSCA -- House Select Committee on Assassinations; WC -- Warren Commission)
A Brief Review of Gerald Posner's Book CASE CLOSED (New York: Random House, 1993, hardback edition).
By Michael T. Griffith
In light of Dr. David Mantik's discovery at the National Archives that the single-bullet theory is very probably a physical impossibility, any book that posits only one gunman is on shaky ground from the outset. Harrison Livingstone explains Dr. Mantik's discovery:
Mantik measured the width of the spine directly on the X-ray. He estimated the front-to-back distance of the body as 14 cm (typical for males of this size) and the distance of the back wound from the midline (4.5 cm to 5.0 cm) was given by the HSCA. He measured distances on the photographs as well. The wound seen in the front of the throat at Parkland was placed at the midline. [Quoting Dr. Mantik] "When I placed these measurements onto a cross section of the body at the seventh cervical vertebra and then connected the bullet entry and exit by a straight line, I immediately saw that the 'magic' bullet had to go right through the spine. This path would have caused major damage to the spine and would have been very obvious on the chest X-ray. In fact, there is no major trauma like this anywhere in the spine.""Because of the impenetrable vertical barrier produced by the transverse processes up and down the entire cervical spine and because of the total width of the cervical spine, there is no place for the bullet to pass through anywhere in the neck and still exit the midline of the throat. If, instead, the upper chest (thoracic spine) is considered as a possible bullet trajectory site, then another problem arises. The bullet would have to go right through the lung. But no lung damage of this type was seen by the pathologists and none is seen on the X-rays either This 'magic' bullet simply cannot enter through the back wound and then exit through the throat wound without hitting the spine--or else causing major lung trauma."
"It is odd that this rather simple reconstruction with exact measurements has never been done before. Its very simplicity, however, provides direct evidence that the object which entered the back could not have exited at the front of the throat." (KILLING KENNEDY AND THE HOAX OF THE CENTURY, New York: Carroll and Graf, 1995, pp. 93-94)
This point can't be overemphasized. Without the single-bullet theory, there can be no lone-gunman scenario. It is as simple and telling as that. Even supporters of the WC admitted long ago that if the single-bullet theory were wrong, then there had to be more than one gunman firing at President Kennedy. Since the theory is very likely impossible, we can be virtually certain that more than one gunman was involved in the assassination. Hence, there is really no need to even discuss Posner's book, since its foundational assumption, that there was only one gunman, is almost certainly wrong. However, because the book continues to be viewed by some as the best defense of the single-assassin theory available, let us now examine a few of the errors the work contains:
* In his illustration titled "The Escape" (p. 481), Posner shows the lone gunman (supposedly Oswald) moving in a straight line from the sixth-floor sniper's nest to the rifle's hiding place. But photos of the sixth floor taken soon after the shooting prove that this would have been impossible because of row after row of stacks of boxes. The ONLY clear path from the sniper's nest ran along the east wall and then the north wall. This, in fact, is the route that WC supporters like Gary Savage and Todd Vaughan believe the gunman would have had to use. The difference is substantial. Posner's route is only about 80-85 feet long, but the clear route would have been 150-155 feet long. To examine the clear photographic evidence on the escape route, see Gary Savage's book FIRST DAY EVIDENCE, pp. 165-175, photos 54-66.
* In his illustration titled "View from above" (p. 479), which is part of his single-bullet graphics, Posner has Governor John Connally rotated nearly haflway to his right at Zapruder frame 224. Posner does this in order to explain how a bullet exiting Kennedy's throat could have struck Connally near his right armpit. However, frame 224 does not show Connally in this position. Connally's shoulders appear to be nearly square to both the bubble-top support bar and to the windshield's sun vizors, both of which run perfectly horizontally across the car. FBI photographic expert Lyndal Shaneyfelt told the WC that Connally was facing pretty much straight ahead in frame 224.
* In the abovementioned illustration for Z224, Posner also has Connally shifted several inches to the left, so much so that he is nearly sitting in the middle of the limousine. However, this frame clearly shows no such thing. Connally is not sitting that far to the left.
* Posner assumes that Kennedy and Connally were hit by the same bullet (the so-called magic bullet) in Zapruder frame 224 (pp. 327-333). Posner posits this theory because he believes Connally's lapel flips up at frame 224 and that this motion was caused by the exiting of a bullet from Connally's chest. However, Connally himself, after carefully studying the Zapruder film, insisted he was NOT hit prior to frame 231. The lapel flip could have been caused by a gust of wind from the stiff breeze that was blowing in Dealey Plaza at the time.
Also, if a bullet did cause the lapel flip, then that missile could not have been the same bullet that struck President Kennedy in the back. In frame 225, as Kennedy emerges from behind the road sign, we see, at the very least, that he has brought his right arm down, bent his forearm inward, and has his hand close to his chest (he was in the process of reaching for his throat). His left hand is at least at the level of his diaphragm. Kennedy could not have brought even his right arm to its Z225 position as a result of a Z224 bullet hit, nor from a hit at Z223.19. Dr. Roger McCarthy, a ballistics expert, has observed that it would have taken Kennedy at least 3 frames to move hands and arms in response to a shot in the back, and that the latest Kennedy could have been hit was at Z221. The fastest reflex reaction known to modern medicine is the eyeblink, which occurs in 40-50 milliseconds. That's slightly less than the time span of one Zapruder frame. If he had been struck at Z224, Kennedy could not have stopped waving, brought his right arm down, bent his forearm inward, and moved his hand close to his chest in less than 2-3 frames. Zapruder's camera operated at right around 18.3 frames per second. This means that Kennedy would have had no more than 2 frames, or no more than 1/9th of a second, to assume his Z225 position.
Some WC supporters have opined that the bullet would have tranisted Kennedy at Z223.19. But this still would not have given him enough time to react as we see him doing in Z225. It's a physical impossibility.
* Posner assumes throughout his book that Oswald had the marksmanship ability to perform the assassination in 5.6 to 8.4 seconds. But Oswald was regarded as a rather poor shot in the Marines, as well as by those who later knew him in Russia. Not even world-class, Master-rated marksmen have been able to duplicate Oswald's alleged feat. For that matter, no rifle test has simulated all of the conditions under which Oswald supposedly fired. The closest thing to a realistic simulation was the CBS rifle test held in 1967, in which eleven expert marksmen fired at moving targets from the required height and distances. NOT ONE OF THEM succeeded in scoring at least two hits out of three shots in less than 6 seconds on the first attempt, but Oswald would have had only one attempt. In later series a few of the riflemen did manage to do this. Several of them, though, failed to do it on any of their attempts. And these were experienced, expert shooters. Oswald's best score in the Marines, after weeks of intensive training, was the middle category of three qualification groups, and he just barely qualified for that level. Henry Hurt, an investigative journalist and former Rockefeller Foundation fellow, interviewed dozens of Oswald's former Marine colleagues, and learned that Oswald was viewed as a mediocre to poor shot. One of the Marines said to Hurt,
If I had to pick one man in the whole United States to shoot me, I'd pick Oswald. I saw that man shoot. There's no way he could have ever learned to shoot well enough to do what they accused him of doing in Dallas. (REASONABLE DOUBT, New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1985, p. 99)
Although the CBS rifle test came somewhat close to being realistic, it lacked a number of factors under which Oswald would have had to fire. For example, the CBS shooters fired from a window that was completely open, whereas Oswald would have been firing from a window that was no more than halfway open. The CBS shooters did not fire in cramped quarters, but photos of the sniper's nest show that Oswald would have had no more than 30-32 inches in which to kneel. The CBS shooters were able to track the target clearly for the first shot, whereas Oswald's first shot would have come a split-second after the limousine emerged from beneath the intervening oak tree.
* Posner, as do other WC supporters, argues that Oswald would have actually had 8.2-8.4 seconds in which to fire, not just 5.6 seconds. Posner points out that a shot was almost certainly fired at around Zapruder frame 160. He assumes, of course, that Oswald fired that shot. However, in order to accept this assumption, one would have to believe that "Oswald" fired and COMPLETELY MISSED, NOT ONLY KENNEDY, BUT THE ENTIRE LIMOUSINE, and this from a distance of less than 140 feet and while firing nearly straight down at the car.
* Posner asserts that there was no large hole in the back of the President's head, because he knows this would be a strong indication of a shot from the front. Recently released files, however, along with Dr. Mantik's examination of the autopsy x-rays at the National Archives, have proven there was such a defect. The released files corroborate what we already knew from private interviews with witnesses at the autopsy, namely, that there was an orange-sized area of missing bone in the right rear part of the head. In their HSCA interviews, some of the witnesses put the defect squarely in the back of the head, while others placed it slightly to the right, but all of these individuals agreed that the wound was in a region of the back of the head--not on the side, nor on top, but in the back of the skull. Furthermore, Dr. Mantik discovered that the anterior-posterior skull x-ray shows an area of missing bone in the back of the head. The HSCA never dealt with this fact, but instead simply ignored it, possibly because it knew it could not harmonize this defect with the alleged autopsy photos of the back of the head, which show that area intact.
The "flap theory" won't work because the mortician who worked on the skull, Tom Robinson, has emphasized that there was still a visible defect in the rear of the head even after the addition of the late-arriving skull fragments from Dallas. (Those fragments did NOT include the Harper fragment, which was blown from the President's head during the shooting. The released files reveal that at least two doctors at Methodist Hospital, including the chief pathologist, firmly identified that fragment as occipital bone, i.e., bone from the back of the head.)
These are just a few of the dozens of serious errors in Posner's book. If you would like more information on this subject, I would refer you to my book-length response entitled Hasty Judgment: A Reply to Gerald Posner.
Other responses to Posner's book include the following:
CASE OPEN (New York: Carrol and Graf, 1994), by Harold Weisberg
KILLING KENNEDY AND THE HOAX OF THE CENTURY, by Harrison Livingstone, chapter 7.
NEVER AGAIN: THE GOVERNMENT CONSPIRACY IN THE JFK ASSASSINATION (New York: Carroll and Graf, 1995), by Harold Weisberg. Though not formally written as a reply to Posner, the book does in fact consider a number of the key issues that he discussed.
You can order these books from JFK-Lancer Productions via e-mail at jfklancr@flash.net, or via regular post from the Last Hurrah Bookshop. See "Groups and Resources" on this web page for more information.
Mike Griffith