7. The forward snap—angular calculations
Because JFK's head rotated about the top of his neck after it was hit, it would seem more appropriate to use angular calculations to calculate the forward speed of the snap. The equation is as follows:
where mbullet, mhead, vbullet, Q, and vbulletafter are the same as before, Rhead is the radius of the head, and Rbullet is the lever arm of the bullet about the point of rotation, here assumed to be the top of the neck. Starting values for the variables are mbullet = 161 grains, vbullet = 1800 ft s-1, mhead = 7 lb, vbulletafter = 200 ft s-1, Q = 12° (these five the same as for the linear calculations), Rbullet = 5.75 in, and Rhead = 4.5 in. The base answer determined with these values is 4.68 ft s-1 for the snap, which is 10% less than from the linear calculations. This value is still consistent with the average speed of 3.3 ft s-1 determined from the Zapruder film, however, for the same three reasons discussed for the linear calculations.
Sensitivity analysis
The sensitivity analysis is run the same as for the
linear case. As before, the standard values are shown in boldface. Also as
before, the sensitivities fall into two discrete groups, low values around -0.1
(vbulletafter and Q)
and high values of around 1 (mbullet, vbullet,
mhead,
Rbullet, and Rhead). Again, the most sensitive variable
(with the greatest range of effects on the snap), is mhead.
This time,
however, the second most sensitive variable is Rhead, with a range of
effects of 2.1 ft s-1 (as opposed to 2.8 for mhead). It is
significant that the two most sensitive variables are properties of the head.
Thus the angular calculations give results very similar to
the linear calculations.
Sensitivity analysis, Snap 1 angular
mbullet |
vsnap |
vbullet |
vsnap |
vbulletafter |
vsnap |
mhead |
vsnap |
Q |
vsnap |
156 |
4.535 |
1750 |
4.534 |
|
|
|
|
7 |
4.758 |
157 |
4.564 |
1760 |
4.563 |
0 |
5.280 |
5.0 |
6.552 |
8 |
4.746 |
158 |
4.593 |
1770 |
4.592 |
50 |
5.130 |
5.5 |
5.957 |
9 |
4.732 |
159 |
4.622 |
1780 |
4.622 |
100 |
4.980 |
6.0 |
5.460 |
10 |
4.716 |
160 |
4.651 |
1790 |
4.651 |
150 |
4.830 |
6.5 |
5.040 |
11 |
4.699 |
161 |
4.680 |
1800 |
4.680 |
200 |
4.680 |
7.0 |
4.680 |
12 |
4.680 |
162 |
4.709 |
1810 |
4.710 |
250 |
4.530 |
7.5 |
4.368 |
13 |
4.660 |
163 |
4.738 |
1820 |
4.739 |
300 |
4.380 |
8.0 |
4.095 |
14 |
4.638 |
164 |
4.767 |
1830 |
4.768 |
350 |
4.230 |
8.5 |
3.854 |
15 |
4.614 |
165 |
4.797 |
1840 |
4.798 |
400 |
4.080 |
9.0 |
3.640 |
16 |
4.589 |
166 |
4.826 |
1850 |
4.827 |
|
|
|
|
17 |
4.562 |
Sensitivity
= |
Sensitivity
= |
Sensitivity
= |
Sensitivity
= |
Sensitivity
= |
|||||
Range = 0.29 |
Range = 0.29 |
Range = 1.20 |
Range = 2.91 |
Range = 0.20 |
Rbullet |
vsnap |
Rhead |
vsnap |
4.75 |
3.866 |
3.50 |
6.017 |
5.00 |
4.070 |
3.75 |
5.616 |
5.25 |
4.273 |
4.00 |
5.265 |
5.50 |
4.477 |
4.25 |
4.956 |
5.75 |
4.680 |
4.50 |
4.680 |
6.00 |
4.884 |
4.75 |
4.434 |
6.25 |
5.087 |
5.00 |
4.212 |
6.50 |
5.291 |
5.25 |
4.012 |
6.75 |
5.494 |
5.50 |
3.829 |
Sensitivity
= |
Sensitivity
= |
||
Range = 1.63 |
Range = 2.19 |
Ordered summary of sensitivities
Variable | Sensitivity of vsnap | Range of vsnap, ft s-1 | Magnitude |
Positive effect on snap | |||
vbullet | 1.14 | 0.29 | Small |
mbullet | 1.00 | 0.29 | Small |
Rbullet | 1.00 | 1.63 | Large |
Negative effect on snap | |||
Q | -0.05 | 0.20 | Small |
vbulletafter | -0.13 | 1.20 | Medium |
Rhead | -1.00 | 2.19 | Large |
mhead | -1.01 | 2.84 | Large |
The sensitivities and ranges of effect for the five
variables used previously for the linear calculation are nearly the same here.
The new rotational variables, Rbullet and Rhead,
have large effects, with Rbullet being positive and Rhead
negative. The difference in sign is easy to understand. Since Rbullet
represents the lever arm of the impacting bullet, greater values will make the
head easier to rotate (positive effect). Since Rhead is
related to the moment of inertia of the head, greater values will make the head
harder to rotate (negative effect).
The two most important variables here (as defined by range of
snap) are the mass and radius of the head (in that order). Just behind that come
the lever arm of the bullet and the exit speed of the bullet. Relative to these
variables, the mass, velocity, and angle of inclination of the bullet are much
less important.
Is the snap quantitatively consistent with a shot from Oswald's rifle?
We close this section on the snap by returning to the
question that prompted it. The answer is a clear yes, that the calculated speed
of the snap (4.5–5 ft s-1) is
completely consistent with the observed average speed of >3.3 ft s-1.
This very important result allows us to progress to the next question, whether
the initial rearward lurch of JFK's head and body are consistent with the same
shot.
Ahead to Plausibility Arguments for Lurch
Back to Snap Linear
Back to Physics of the Head Shot